I've also been meaning to put in my own take on the 2009 MLS regular season attendance numbers. Tom over at PI looks at the issue in terms of expansion teams versus older clubs, but I'm not sure that's a complete analysis. This won't be either, but here's a few brief points:
1) Outside Seattle, no team saw more than a 1% increase in attendance - except San Jose because of the Barcelona double header. 6 teams had stable (+-1%) figures. Everyone else dropped like a rock.
2) Success breeds gate resiliency. Of those stable teams, Houston, Columbus, and Chivas have had sustained success over the last two years or more. Of Toronto and San Jose, neither had much room to go up with fan bases that fill their grounds.
3) Rio Tinto was in its first full year. I'd be surprised to not see attendance drop next year.
4) Losing seasons, unattractive soccer, lack of double headers, players people don't want to watch, or all of the above played a role in New England, DC and LA's gutting.
5) Numbers don't tell the whole story, as Toronto had several sellout games this year where there were notable absences in the stands, and free comps appear to be declining overall (although they were used at Rio Tinto this weekend).
6) Obviously, tough economic times had something to do with the fall in attendance elsewhere.
7) The Beckham bump is fading/over, especially in LA. Same with Blanco in Chicago, which appears to have a lot of problems in how it's promoting itself.
8) Seattle just lost the SuperSonics. I don't think we can over estimate the temporal relation of that event when analyzing how the city embraced the Sounders. In other words, I'm not sure it's duplicatable.
9) The Ohio economy has 11-12% unemployment right now (10% officially, but lots of people have stopped looking for jobs). Columbus did ok - not great - in those conditions.
10) New York's new stadium can't come on line fast enough.
11) The weather this year was terrible for walkups all around the league.
12) At some point I'll deal with the "marketing to adults vs. families" issue. Not today.
Overall, I think these number are good. They show stability in a challenging environment, and a lot of excitement about new teams and teams that are good.
Looking ahead to next year, I don't see how MLS isn't primed for one of its best seasons ever. The economy will be better. New York's new stadium will stop the bleeding and give fans a reason to go to games even if the team doesn't. Philadelphia should provide an attendance boost to all the east coast teams and Columbus. Seattle is adding seats. Both LA teams are in the playoffs this year. Dallas will be better. New England and Chicago are tossups, but I'd expect them both to do better next year.
The downsides are we'll likely see a decline in Salt Lake and Colorado, and KC and San Jose don't have anyway to bring their numbers up.
Anyway, there's a lot of good coming down the pike. Stadium problems are fewer and far between, lots of good markets are entering the league, and again, the economy will be better. Put me on record as saying average attendance next year will be the best since the inaugural year. We've got good days ahead.
-FS
Friday, October 30, 2009
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2 comments:
I want to see the analysis of "marketing to adults vs. families." Out here in Seattle, I didn't notice much difference--or, rather, didn't notice any advertisements explicitly directed at either. If anything, I think the advertising was directed at adults, and probably for good reason: games, at least when enjoyed from the GA section, have tended away from family-friendly. Then again, maybe the families are all sitting in the more expensive seats.
Another thought: what's the ratio of season ticket holders to single ticket purchases? Does the number of subscribers correlate with higher average attendance at games? Would MLS benefit more from pushing season or single tickets?
I'm not surprised about the GA section. If you moved around the stadium, it might be different.
As for season tickets, Seattle Business Journal reported that before the season started Sounders FC sold over 20,000 season tickets.
http://seattle.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2009/03/02/story2.html
Which makes it a 2/3 ratio.
Season tickets are great because 1) teams get the money before the season even starts and 2) each and everyone of those tickets counts toward attendance regardless of whether the purchaser shows up. That said, they're a harder sell because they are more money and a bigger commitment.
If I had to guess, I think every MLS club would like to have the ratio Seattle does. I think a team like the Crew typically rolls with 6-8k season ticket holders. But group sales and single tickets have their place for broadening the fan base.
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