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Tuesday, November 17, 2009

My initial reaction to the Schelotto situation

UPDATED: Sean Michelle's post now includes some new quotes from Warzycha and McCullers that confirm some of my speculation on the cap and how they want Schelotto back.

Is to wait and see how this one plays out. To the Columbus fans, welcome to the silly season.

Lest we forget, everything in the transfer window is dramatic with Guille. Remember when he first came to Columbus? It took forever to get the deal signed, McCullers was back and forth, the deal was announced before it was finalized, and yours truly was beside himself:

So McCullers can introduce this guy to the press. Or at least a picture of him or something. And no, it's not Fred Ricart's grandson trying to sell you a car. The guy's down in South America for the weekend regardless. And I have to leave the warm weather in LA. I'll get you for this, Mark.


And then after the first season in Columbus, Schelotto made doe eyes at the Argentine press, and it went back and forth for months. And then he came back to the Crew and said, yeah, you know, business, and most of us interpreted that as "I had to let them know I still loved them."

So what we have here is nothing new. The fact that Goff got the scoop out first instead of Michelle makes me think that Schelotto's agent was probably making calls in order to get maximum media impact and outrage drummed up. And yeah, a lot of people are frothing about the "low ball" offer.

What's interesting is Sean Michelle's report that Guille twice turned down a new contract during the season for the same money he made this year. I don't know why he wouldn't sign a deal for that kind of money at that time. Maybe it was after he scored 10 goals in 10 games, and he figured he'd play well all year and make ever more money. Maybe it stipulated he drive around with out his lights on and kill the driver of the first car who flashed him. I don't know.

Michelle reports that if Schelotto's cap hit were to remain at the maximum, other players would have to eat his salary as just about all of them are due raises. Of course the contracts in MLS aren't worth the paper they're written on from management's perspective, but somewhere along the line, someone would get screwed.

Even so, there are too many variables out there right now to be able to definitively comment on the Crew's cap condition next year. More specifically, we don't know the team's protected list for the expansion draft - depending on who gets exposed, that could free up some cap space as well. If the Crew have made a decision to keep a bunch of high salaried guys, then they could indeed be in a bind of their own making. On the other hand, if they lose a guy like Alejandro Moreno and his six figure salary, or even Frankie Hejduk, that could free up a decent chunk of money on its own.

Edit: We also don't even know what the cap is yet. So there's a lot of guesswork going on from Columbus's point of view.

For those of you wandering over from BA Duane's post on 24th Minute where he claimed that Guille leaving is the direct result of Columbus not making any money, I have some bad news for you. MLS itself is responsible for paying the salaries of the players under the cap, and teams don't get an extra check if they don't spend it all. Assuming the DP rule will still be in effect, and Guille would be paid $650,000 in total compensation, HSG would be responsible for $235,000. Somehow, I doubt Clark Hunt is worrying about how he'll make up that money in attendance numbers. I suspect these negotiations are purely about not maxing out the cap number due to needing to fit other players under it.

A lot has been made about Warzycha not knowing how to play Schelotto, or not even liking him, but I don't think that's the case. Hell, Schelotto was the team's top goal scorer, third in the league, and freaking brilliant on just about every night he played. He was a different type of player, more scorer than creator, and I think the argument can be made that the move hurt production in other areas of the field, but when it worked, it worked quite well. So I don't think Robert's in there telling McCullers to put Schelotto on minor league baseball wages or he gets the boot. One factor to consider is that Guille's body did wear down. He has trouble playing the whole game even when fit. So another year on will continue to be a challenge for him physically.

Now, is the Crew's offer fair? I'm going with "fair-ish". I think this is purely a negotiation tactic on the Crew's part. You saw what they did to me last year. I think a good cap number for Guille at this point is about $300,000. If he wants more money, maybe you do a little dealing on one of the draft days and pick up some allocation money to cover the rest. You get creative. But I don't see the Crew maxing out under the cap, and I don't think they can be blamed for not wanting to do that. They've got a young, good squad with decent financial balance, and they need to think of the future as much as anyone.

Now, it does suck for them to have this all play out in the media, but I think it comes with the territory. It's how Schelotto plays the game. Again, welcome to the silly season.

Let's also look at Schelotto's options. I doubt the Crew would trade him to anyone else in MLS unless they were able to totally plunder the other team in the form of at least one or two good young players. A Chris Rolfe type player. Would another MLS team wager their future to get Schelotto for a year? Would Schelotto go to a team that did that? I think such a deal is unlikely.

That leaves either signing with the Crew or returning to Argentina for one more year. In case you haven't noticed, things aren't going that great for the Argentine first division this year, and that's going to negatively impact Schelotto's ability to use his homeland clubs as financial leverage. Not saying someone couldn't come up with over half a million dollars for him, but I think it's more of a stretch these days. Plus there's the advantage of knowing his paycheck will cash if he plays in MLS.

I feel a little like captain obvious, but given all that I've outlined, I'm going to wait and see before I come unglued about the unfair treatment of Schelotto by Taskmaster McCullers and Robber Baron Hunt. We'll see. I'd love to see Guille back in a Crew uniform next year. Let's face it - he's the best to ever wear the shirt in that town. He should leave under different circumstances.

-FS

9 comments:

Duane Rollins said...

Thanks for the clarification captain obvious. We Canadians have a real hard time understanding the DP rule. Could you type slower next time?

The Hunts are just cheap, period, but if the Crew were actually profitable they would be far more likely to spend a quarter of a million out of their own pocket. I’m not sure how you argue otherwise. You’re essentially saying “trust me” they would pay it, rather than providing any concrete evidence that they would.
Ultimately, it’s ALWAYS someone else's fault that the Crew don't draw/are cheap/whatever. Always. It's never the Crew's fault -- it's the schedule (night games/weekday games/games that take place before the Ohio State Fair/games in cold weather/etc.), and the fact that the Crew don't draw NEVER matters. Some other team is always just as bad/it's just stupid Canadians pointing it out/the Crew drew really well in 1997 so shut up you.

Excuses. Excuses. Excuses.

The Crew's attendance is a problem. Period. How you can't bring yourself to admit it is kinda sad, actually.

Fake Sigi said...

HSG's reputation for cutting costs is well earned, but it's intellectually dishonest to come out and claim the reason Schelotto's not under contract for $X is purely because of Crew attendance issues. You've conveniently dismissed salary cap congestion, age, past negotiations, Warzycha's predilections, available allocations, the expansion draft, the fact that the Crew have two doses of CCL this year and will need a deep roster, the report that the Crew twice offered him a one-year extension at the same money earlier in the year, and that HSG has signed two designated players, one for Columbus, and one for Dallas (a team that has historically drawn much poorer support, incidentally) in favor of your own preconceived narrative.

Nevermind that HSG paid Schelotto to play three amazing seasons in MLS during which the Crew's revenue steadily increased - now that they're doing hardball negotiations the Crew can't make money and are hurting MLS. You are truly blinded by your hatred.

As for attendance, I never considered looking at historical trends as making excuses. All I've done is provide a context in which to properly examine your claims. And right now the Crew are drawing in the solid center of MLS in a stadium they own while pursuing a policy of reducing freebees and raising prices. Couple that with the product they've put on the field recently, I see a lot of win.

In 2009 I see two "embarrassing" league attendances for the Crew - 7500 against the Rapids in early April and 8700 midweek against the Earthquakes. Everything else is between 13-17k, with 19k+ crowds vs. Dallas and LA.

Tell me then, how it is that the Crew *never* draw.

I'd love to see CCS sold out every game like Toronto and Seattle. Given time, it will get there.

And by they way, I'm glad you learned how to spell "excuse" after muffing it in your post title. Luckily for you, "excuss" is a word, just not the word you were looking for.

Love,

FS

Duane Rollins said...

Typo smack. Cool.

Fake Sigi said...

It is. Maybe I should have a tag for it.

Of course, that was just one very small part of what I said.

Anonymous said...

Duane Rollins has no cluse what he is talking about anyway so just let him be. He sould hate the crew since they cant EVER beat them and TFC can even come close to playoffs. Its all jealousy my friend. And ther are far far worse teams in MLS with atendance problems but its all TFC fans can say other than "we have free health care!" Just kill yourselves!

justin said...

I suppose it was about time the Canadian Pitch Weasel made another entirely unnecessary appearance. My guess is the next time won't be until after Boxing Day.

Duane Rollins said...

Anonymous,

If you think I -- or, hell, FakeSigi even -- are primarily focused on the scoreboard then you aren't really reading very closely.

Yes, the Crew are a better team that Toronto. You got me. I'm pretty sure I've been pretty consistent with that opinion. Of course, time will tell how much of the Crew's success was based on Mr. Schmid's talents and, despite being an original MLS team, the Crew still only have one more MLS Cup than Toronto (basically you should probably shut up before a DC United or Houston/San Jose fan wanders over).

Duane Rollins said...

Justin,

You don't want me to comment? Tell the author of the blog to not post about me then.

I have a tag for Christ’s sake.

justin said...

Oh by all means, comment away. I know that the range of hospitable habitats for your particular style of pitch weaselry is dwindling. It must be terribly frustrating to have to compact all that weaseling into 2 or 3 blog postings per day, 5 to 7 podcasts per week, and the tiny confines of the GTA.