We're not privy to the conversations .....
and neither the league nor the players' union has been willing to disclose specifics, or for that matter, generalities. (Sorry, unwashed masses, we'll toss you some crumbs when we so choose.) For all we know, 95 percent of the issues have been resolved.
Which means that it's almost pointless to speculate on the state of negotiations like some people have. Goff also states that he's heard free agency is the sticking point and he quotes a source saying the players are ready to strike if necessary, which is nothing we haven't heard before.
First of all, the players have absolutely no leverage in a work stoppage. None. MLS will keep making money through Soccer United Marketing off of all those Mexico exhibition matches and Interliga and will simply wait for the players to come back to the table. Nor do I think it would be some kind of death blow to the league or a particular team - single entity with a multitude of operator-investors almost guarantees that. So if the players force a work stoppage for free agency, they've woefully overplayed their hand. And after having lost several players unhappy with the MLS way to Europe in the off season, I don't think the union has the guts to mount a long fight.
So I don't believe there's going to be a long work stoppage, which makes the point of how bad off would MLS be kind of moot. I think it would go over really poorly with the fans, but as we've seen before, those are the last people taken into account in a standoff like this.
-FS
5 comments:
Short version: Duane is wrong. Very wrong.
Duane is an idiot who only wants to see big markets in mls(I.e. Tfc, la, Seattle). He is a joke just like his bloasthma the whole tfc fan base who are a bunch if winey babies!
Well, on this issue, I don't think he's entirely wrong, but for different reasons than he puts forth. As opposed to people not noticing, I just think the owners would be financially prepared to wait it out.
Although he's much more willing to entertain the idea of a long strike than I am. I just don't see it happening.
-FS
If MLS as a business can survive on SUM revenues alone, then they can survive a lengthy work stoppage.
However, I would suspect that a lengthy work stoppage would hurt MLS's gate revenues. And if MLS can't afford to take those hits, then I think a lengthy work stoppage would really hurt MLS as a business.
Bottom line, a lot of teams (even big ones like DC & LA) had serious attendance drops from 2008 to 2009.
I think a lengthy work stoppage could create 10%+ drops in attendance in the majority of MLS markets.
Could MLS survive that?
Who would be their Mark McGwire & Sammy Sosa to bring the fans back?
It's not just the future of MLS that's the issue, it's the future of professional soccer. The NHL lockout absolutely killed that league, and I can see multiple teams having to close up shop if MLS does the same. Sure it's strong in markets like mine (Seattle) and BAD's (Toronto), but places like Salt Lake, NE, NY, Columbus, KC, etc. would suffer enormously. I think it will irreparably harm the league.
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